2018年9月6日中国玻璃综合指数1194.22点,环比上涨1.09点;中国玻璃价格指数1222.72点,环比上涨1.36点;中国玻璃信心指数1080.22点,环比上涨0.03点。今天玻璃现货市场总体走势平稳,生产企业以增加出库和回笼资金为主,区域市场价格有所上涨。前期北方地区,尤其是沙河地区涨价过快,造成本地价格在周边市场的竞争优势减弱,以及部分生产线停产不及预期,造成贸易商采购速度有所减缓。而南方市场近期出库尚可,部分厂家报价开始小幅跟进,市场反应正常。
回顾8月份,现货市场开始大幅上涨,并显著高于历史同期,之后各区域厂家召开协调会议后,相继制定了旺季提价计划,提前为市场预热,之后随着沙河地区环保限产,先后关停三条生产线,之后还会有新的限产措施,市场信心随即大涨,国内部分地区玻璃现货价格一度接近年初高点。
反观房地产市场,作为主要的玻璃需求端。从目前来看,房地产市场走弱可能会导致玻璃需求长期低迷,进入旺季后终端需求也未明显增加。
房地产市场走弱,主要由于房企资金偏紧,8月以来房屋销售一度回落,特别是三、四线城市需求转弱,房屋销售面进一步回落,导致房企资金偏紧情况加剧,竣工快速回升的难度较大。进入采暖季后,北方地区会开始新一轮的环保检查,必将影响到工地开工,因此玻璃需求在采暖季前赶工的刺激下阶段性释放后,可能会持续走弱。
综上所述,目前沙河等地区厂家应以增加出库和回笼资金为主,价格调整幅度不宜过大,前期价格上涨速度过快,需要一定时间的消化过程。
On September 6, 2018, the China Glass Composite Index rose 1.09 points, 1.36 points, 1,294.22 points, 1.09 points, 1,222.72 points, and China Glass Confidence Index 1080.22 points, 0.03 points, respectively. Today, the overall trend of glass spot market is stable, the main production enterprises to increase the warehouse and withdrawal funds, regional market prices have risen. In the early period, the price of northern China, especially Shahe, rose too fast, which weakened the competitive advantage of local prices in the surrounding market, and some production lines stopped production unexpectedly, which slowed down the speed of TRADERS'purchasing. And the recent outbound South market is still available, some manufacturers began to quote slightly follow up, the market reaction is normal.
Looking back to August, the spot market began to rise sharply, and significantly higher than the same period in history. After the coordination meeting held by manufacturers in various regions, they successively formulated the price increase plan for peak season, preheated the market ahead of schedule. Then, with the environmental protection of Shahe area, they shut down three production lines successively, and then there will be new measures to limit production, market trust. Immediately after that, the spot price of glass in some parts of the country was close to the high point of the year.
In contrast, the real estate market is the main demand side of glass. From the current point of view, the weakening of the real estate market may lead to a long-term downturn in glass demand, the terminal demand has not increased significantly after the peak season.
The weakening of the real estate market is mainly due to the tight capital of housing enterprises, housing sales have fallen since August, especially in the third and fourth-tier cities, housing sales have further fallen, resulting in a tight capital situation intensified housing enterprises, the completion of a rapid rebound is more difficult. After entering the heating season, the northern region will start a new round of environmental inspection, will inevitably affect the construction site, so glass demand in the heating season before rush to stimulate the release of phases, may continue to weaken.
To sum up, Shahe and other regional manufacturers should mainly increase the funds from the warehouse and withdrawal, the price adjustment should not be too large, the early price rise too fast, it needs a certain period of digestion process.